Have we hit the worst of the housing slump?
For years, during much of the housing boom of 2001 through 2006, in fact, people debated whether we were heading toward a huge housing slump, one in which housing values would dip dramatically and foreclosures would skyrocket.
Well, we all know who won that debate.
The new debate in the housing industry centers on whether we’ve yet hit the bottom of the residential real estate slump. Have we seen the worst of the downturn? Or are things going to get even worse?
The answer, not surprisingly, depends on whom you ask. Ask me, and I’ll tell you that I think things are going to get at least a little worse before they get better. Ask officials with the National Association of Realtors and they might tell you the opposite, that we have already seen the worst.
The Realtors association might point to their new housing forecast as evidence that they’re right. You can read the forecast here, but basically it says that home sales should hold fairly steady in the coming months and will actually increase slightly — from 5.01 million homes sold in 2008 to 5.35 million sold in 2009 — next year.
The Realtors are also predicting that home prices, after falling 4 to 7 percent this year, will rise 2 to 4 percent next year.
Is this good news? If it happens, yes. Then it’s a sign that the housing crisis has bottomed out.
Will it happen, though? That’s a tough call. It’s not like the Realtors association — which never quite admitted that there was a housing bubble just ready to pop — hasn’t been wrong before.
Tags: bottomed out, housing forecast, housing slump, National Associaton of RealtorsRelated Stories
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